Peyton-Mania! A Breakdown of all 32 Teams’ Chances of Acquiring the Legendary QB

NOTE: Teams' chances of acquiring Peyton Manning are ranked on a scale from 1 (No chance) to 10 (very likely).

  

Chicago Bears: The Bears, who finished the 2011 season 26th in total passing offense, essentially eliminated themselves from playoff contention due to the fact that they lacked a competent backup QB. Before Jay Cutler was lost for the season with a broken hand in Week 11, the team was 7-3 and marching towards a wildcard berth. After the injury, the team went a dismal 1-5 with welterweights Caleb Hanie and Josh McCown under center, missing the playoffs. And even when Cutler was playing, the aerial attack was average at best, and his sometimes mopey attitude turned a lot of people off.

 I’m sure there are plenty of Bears fans who would love it if new GM Phil Emery shipped Cutler out of town and signed the fiery Manning to a lucrative 2 or 3 year deal, but that isn’t a realistic aspiration. There probably isn’t any team out there that would want to take on Cutler’s overpriced contract. The team will also want to use most of their $27 million in cap space to sign Matt Forte to a long term deal, along with potentially acquiring a top free agent WR that could help Cutler out. Besides, when this defensive-minded team is 100% healthy, they are formidable. I doubt signing Peyton Manning is anywhere near the top of Chicago’s wish list.

Chances of signing: 2/10 

Cincinnati Bengals: There’s no way Peyton ends up in Cincy. This is a young, up and coming squad with a QB (Andy Dalton) who just earned his first Pro Bowl berth in his first season in the league. The Bengals have also managed to stock up on high end draft picks thanks to the robbery that was the Carson Palmer to Oakland trade, so they are clearly trying to build up the team for a long term Super Bowl run. Manning does not fit into the equation here.

Then again, Bengals owner Mike Brown is well known for making absurd personnel moves, and the team does have a lot of cap room (about $60 million) so I’ll give them better chances than a 1.

Chances of signing: 2/10 

Buffalo Bills: Some might argue that the Bills made a colossal mistake in giving QB Ryan Fitzpatrick a 6 year, $59 million dollar contract with $24 million guaranteed midway through last season. At the time, they were 6-2 and looking like a potential playoff contender. Almost immediately following the Fitzpatrick extension, the team’s production dropped off dramatically, and they lost all but 1 of their remaining 9 games.

Did they overpay for him? Absolutely. But was he the sole reason for their decline? No. Buffalo’s defense was horrendous, finishing 26th overall, and their star running back, Fred Jackson, was lost for the rest of the season after a Week 11 leg injury. Fitzpatrick’s production did drop off as the season progressed, but that doesn’t mean he should be jettisoned immediately. The Bills are re-building (when aren’t they, really), so they will have no interest in Manning, and vice versa. I’m sure the front office suits are still haunted by the results of the last time they signed an aging, injury prone QB to a big contract (Drew Bledsoe) so they’ll avoid Manning like the plague. Most of their $30 million in cap space will be used to bolster their porous defense.

 Chances of signing: 1/10 

 Denver Broncos: John Elway and John Fox would love to have Peyton Manning as their QB. Unfortunately, they find themselves begrudgingly committed to the holy enigma that is Tim Tebow for at least one more season. Even if Manning’s arm strength is diminished by neck surgeries, it will probably look great next to whatever Tebow does when he releases the football. In all likelihood, the team will spend the off-season making improvements to the defense and running game, along with praying that Tebow makes huge strides in mini camps and training camp. Denver does have the money to sign Manning, with over $50 million available in cap space, but cutting or benching Tebow would be a hard sell to most of the fan base.

In short, Manning-to-Denver is feasible, yet altogether unlikely.

Chances of signing: 3/10 

Cleveland Browns: Cleveland has needed a starting QB for as long as anybody can really remember. So you have to imagine that Peyton Manning’s name has been tossed around frequently amongst Team President Mike Holmgren and his staff. However, it is highly unlikely that Manning would want to sign with the Browns. Like many analysts have already said, he is returning to the NFL for a shot at more rings, not more money. And even with Peyton playing at QB, the Browns would still not be a bona fide Super Bowl contender. They have a good, but not elite defense, scrubs for WRs, and a carousel of underachieving RBs. Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh dominate the AFC North. By simply adding Peyton Manning, the Browns may be able to reach 8-8 in 2012. But that’s it.

Instead, look for Cleveland to move up to the 2nd overall pick in this year’s draft in order to take Baylor’s phenomenal passer, Robert Griffin III. This is a team focused on their future, not the present.

Chances of signing: 3/10 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tampa would be an intriguing landing spot for Peyton, to say the least. The Bucs always look like a team that is a couple of pieces away from a deep playoff run, and yet they never seem to get it right. Bringing in a legendary QB who is a proven winner may boost this squad to the next level. They certainly have the money to sign him, with a whopping $65 million available in cap space. They also have a new head coach, Greg Schiano, who may be looking to get rid of some of the guys from Raheem Morris’ old squad. The Bucs also rank near the bottom in ticket sales every year, so obviously the name “Peyton Manning” will fill Raymond James Stadium all by itself.

I believe that the Buccaneers are one of Manning’s most likely landing spots. Coach Schiano has to realize that his team faces an uphill battle in competing for the NFC West title, both now and in the future. After all, the other three starting QBs in his division are Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and 2011 Offensive Rookie of the Year Cam Newton. I can definitely envision the team’s current starting QB, Josh Freeman, being traded to another team in the market for a passer, such as Miami or Seattle. In addition, Manning’s skill set would mesh nicely with Tampa’s young corps of WRs, and like in Indy his level of play would help to offset the team’s weak defensive squad. Even after these moves, Tampa would still have their 5th overall pick in this year’s draft.

Trade Freeman for picks, sign Manning, profit on (and off) the field from his presence, and address other needs through the draft. It seems like a perfect situation to me.

Chances of Signing: 7/10 

Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals are yet another ideal fit for Manning. Arizona’s front office has to be kicking itself for signing Kevin Kolb to a long term deal. In his first year as “starter”, he only managed to play in 9 games, and when he did play, he was below average at best. The team’s backup, John Skelton, was arguably much more productive. Moving or releasing Kolb will be difficult, since his contract guarantees him $21 million. But it may be in the team’s best interests to cut their losses and move him ASAP. The team was rewarded the last time they signed an aging veteran QB (Kurt Warner), so signing Manning could potentially be an even bigger reward. Manning in turn would benefit because he would get to throw to superstar WR Larry Fitzgerald (and maybe even his favorite target in Indy, Reggie Wayne, if the Cards choose to sign him too). He’d also be playing in a dome, which is something that all QBs love.

However, cap issues could potentially prevent Arizona from acquiring Manning. Right now, they only have about $14 million in cap space. That number becomes smaller when you factor in the $8 million cap hit the team will take if they choose to part ways with Kolb. Still, Arizona will probably be motivated to acquire Manning, especially since they are in a relatively weak division.

Chances of Signing: 6/10

San Diego Chargers: Not gonna happen. Phillip Rivers may have had a mediocre 2011 campaign, but he’s still a franchise QB. The Chargers won’t be parting ways with him anytime soon. Not much else to say here.

Chances of Signing: 1/10 

Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs are said to be quite interested in acquiring Manning, and with good reason. They finished in last place in the AFC West, even though they had a fairly respectable 7-9 record. Their division is a sort of no man’s land. There isn’t a single team in the West that strikes fear into the heart of the rest of the league, and it hasn’t produced a perennial playoff contender for years.

But that could all change if the Chiefs sign Peyton Manning.

They have a solid defense, young, energetic receivers, and an explosive running game (at least when Jamaal Charles is healthy). Their current QB, Matt Cassel, has been injury prone and inconsistent in his two seasons as Kansas City’s starter. If Peyton Manning signed with the Chiefs, they would be a virtual lock to win the AFC West for the next 2-3 seasons. And, if the rest of the team matures enough, they could even be Super Bowl contenders for the next 2-3 seasons as well.

They will definitely have enough cap space to sign him ($63 million) even after they bite the financial bullet and take the $5.4 cap hit for cutting Cassel. There is probably a mutual interest between Manning and Chiefs, so expect the two sides to at least discuss contract numbers in the near future. Joe Montana rode off into the sunset in this city, so it would be poetic if the best QB since him did the same thing.

Chances of signing: 8/10 

Indianapolis Colts: It still boggles most NFL fans’ minds that Peyton Manning is, in all likelihood, going to end his football career playing for a team other than the Indianapolis Colts. If Manning had been healthy last season, and the Colts hadn’t stumbled into the position of being able to draft Andrew luck, there is no way this article would’ve been written. However, there is an increasing chorus of voices claiming that Manning won’t leave Indy. They believe that the Colts, motivated by guilt and desire to treat Manning with honor, will give him the $28 million dollar roster bonus, start him for another 1-2 years, and let Andrew Luck learn from perhaps the most cerebral QB the league has ever seen.

It sounds like the perfect Hollywood ending, and I guess it’s possible, but I don’t see it happening. Peyton’s absence last season revealed how terrible the Colts really are. Without him, they would’ve been a bottom 5 team for at least the last two or three seasons. The most rational business move would be to let him go, draft Luck, and invest the $28 million that would’ve gone to Manning in the team’s craptastic defense.

And in the NFL, business comes before loyalty.

Chances of signing: 4/10 

Dallas Cowboys: Jerry Jones has been very defensive of Tony Romo lately, saying that he would take Romo over any QB in this year’s draft. Even though he is an underachiever who falls flat towards the end of the regular season, Jones doesn’t seem ready to part ways with Romo just yet. The Cowboys are highly talented, and they just need to find a way to put 2 and 2 together. Jerry Jones is sort of a showman, so it wouldn’t be a total shock if he signed Manning and traded Romo away. But that looks like a highly unlikely situation at this point in time.

Chances of signing: 2/10 

Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins haven’t had a true franchise QB since Dan Marino retired in 2000. No really, they haven’t. Here are some of the guys Miami has attempted to pass off as starting QB material since Marino called it quits:

Jay Fiedler
Cleo Lemon
Joey Harrington
Gus Frerotte

So clearly, at this point the franchise is desperate for a “sure thing” at the QB position. And there isn’t more of a sure thing than a healthy Peyton Manning. The key word there is “healthy”. The Dolphins thought they had acquired their franchise QB back in 2005, when they traded for Minnesota Vikings QB Daunte Culpepper. Culpepper had suffered a devastating knee injury during the previous season, but Dolphins’ doctors determined that he would fully recover. Well, he didn’t, and the Dolphins ended up investing millions of dollars in a QB who only made four starts for the team.

Because of that debacle, the Dolphins may be very hesitant to sign another elite QB with health issues. They’ll at least take a look at Manning, but I think they’re going to go after Matt Flynn more aggressively. Joe Philbin, the Dolphins new head coach, was Flynn’s offensive coordinator during their time together in Green Bay, so they are very familiar with each other.

Chances of signing: 5/10 

Philadelphia Eagles: The so-called “Dream Team” is still reeling from their immensely disappointing 2011 campaign, and in typical Philly fashion, the fans want heads to roll as retribution. That doesn’t appear to be happening. Team owner Jeffery Lurie has stated that Head Coach Andy Reid and Defensive Coordinator Juan Castillo will remain with the team in 2012, and highly talented but overly cocky wideout DeSean Jackson had the franchise tag placed on him last week. However, there are still some question marks hanging over the head of QB Mike Vick. If his 2010 season highlighted his biggest strengths, his 2011 season highlighted his greatest weaknesses. Vick was injury prone and inaccurate for most of last season. Fans and commentators have questioned his ability to win a Super Bowl, and many Philadelphians are once again ready for a change at QB.

It seems unreasonable to think that the Eagles will go after Peyton Manning. But there is an outside chance of that occurring. Nobody expected them to go after Vick in 2009, and nobody expected them to go after CB Nnamdi Asomugha last year. The team could shock the world by jettisoning Vick and signing Manning to a 2-3 year deal, but the odds of that happening aren’t high. If the Eagles are going to surprise everybody this offseason, they’ll probably do it by trading up to the 2nd overall pick in the draft in order to take Robert Griffin III.

Chances of signing: 3/10 

Atlanta Falcons: Not happening. Matt Ryan’s the guy in Atlanta, and this team has more pressing concerns than the QB position.

Chances of signing: 1/10 

San Francisco 49ers: If I was Peyton Manning, I’d sign with San Francisco in a heartbeat. They’ve got an amazing defense, talented WR’s, a stable running game, an energetic and young head coach, and they fell just short of making in into the Super Bowl last year with Alex Smith, yes, Alex Smith as their QB. If Manning’s plan is to win another Super Bowl or two before calling it quits, his should sign with San Francisco ASAP. This team would be absolutely frightening with a legitimate QB leading them. The Niners have about $35 million in cap space, so expect them to make every effort to sign him. Alex Smith is ok, but Manning is elite. And if San Francisco wants to truly be a contender, they need an elite signal caller.

There’s undoubtedly mutual interest between Manning and the 49ers. And I think that the chances of him signing here are good. Very good.

Chances of signing: 9/10 

 New York Giants: In some alternate dimension, the Super Bowl Champion New York Giants are going to cut their franchise QB, Eli Manning, and replace him with his older brother. The story will be so huge that ESPN will spontaneously combust.

But in our dimension, this has absolutely NO chance of happening.

Chances of signing: 1/10 

Jacksonville Jaguars: Common sense would dictate the Jaguars should make a big run at Peyton Manning. They have a 2nd year QB, Blaine Gabbert, who showed absolutely no signs of being able to get things done in his rookie season. Like the Buccaneers, they have putrid ticket sales. And besides Maurice Jones-Drew, they don’t have any superstars on their team. The Jaguars new owner, Shahid Khan, has stated that he intends to keep the franchise in Jacksonville, and that he wants to increase ticket sales. The team has $45 million in cap space, so a run at Manning is within reason.

But honestly, I think Khan really wants to move the Jaguars from Jacksonville to Los Angeles. He probably wants to see another couple of underwhelming seasons play out so that the move to L.A. won’t be as shocking to Jacksonville. Once the team’s in L.A., then the big name investments will be made. Until then, I expect the Jaguars to spend modestly and play terribly.

Chances of signing: 3/10 

 New York Jets: Let’s get this out of the way first: Jets fans hate Mark Sanchez. They’ve grown tired of his inability to develop into something more than a poor man’s Joe Flacco, and they are basically ready to run him out of town with pitchforks in their hands. I’m sure quite a few people in the Jets’ front office feel the same way too. They would love to bring Peyton to New York. It would mean that the Manning brothers would be playing in the same city, and that storyline alone would generate a lot of publicity and revenue for both the Giants and the Jets. Peyton would also give them a much better shot at a Super Bowl run than Sanchez currently does.

But economics dictate that signing Manning will be an incredibly difficult task for the Jets. They only have $2 million in cap space, which means that a lot of guys would either have to have their contracts restructured or just get cut altogether. It seems unlikely that they'll be able to do this, so they’re just going to have to live with the mistake of drafting Sanchez for a couple more seasons.

Chances of signing: 3/10 

Detroit Lions: Matt Stafford is the guy here. Besides, if the Lions are truly worried about Stafford’s history of shoulder injuries, they aren’t going to exchange him for a guy with neck problems…

Chances of signing: 1/10


Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers. Nuff said.

Chances of signing: 1/10 


Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton and they're over the cap by $5 million. Nuff said.

Chances of signing: 1/10 

New England Patriots: In yet another alternate dimension, Patriots owner Robert Kraft, in a fit of rage, cuts Tom Brady and fires Bill Belichick after failing to win the last two Super Bowls that the franchise appeared in. He signs Peyton Manning, hires Tony Dungy, and re-names the team the New England Colts.

Ok, back to reality…

Chances of signing: 1/10 

Oakland Raiders: The Raiders just threw away the best parts of their next two drafts in the hopes that Carson Palmer can be the guy that will restore glory and honor to the franchise again. If his performances in silver and black last year are any indication, that may not happen. But the Raiders front office has to defend their ballsy investment for at least a couple more seasons, so they aren’t going to sign Peyton Manning. I doubt Manning wants to play for the Raiders either, just because of the stigma that Oakland is place where washed up veterans go do die.

Chances of signing: 2/10 

St. Louis Rams: The Rams could definitely benefit from stable QB production, but Manning won’t be landing here. This team is in a massive rebuilding stage, they have limited cap space, and the only franchise player they have right now is QB Sam Bradford. Manning is much more likely to end up on one of the other 3 teams in the NFC West.

This current Rams squad is a long term project. Manning is coming back for the short term. This signing will never happen.

Chances of signing: 1/10 

Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens are a little underwhelmed with the development of QB Joe Flacco, to say the least. Like the 49ers, they are probably just an elite QB away from Super Bowl glory. However, unlike the Niners, their window is closing fast. The Ravens are an aging team in a tough division. Defensive leaders Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are 36 and 33, respectively. Once the team’s star defensive players start declining and retiring, they will be heading for an extended period of retooling.

If the Ravens truly want to go all in for 2012, they should sign Manning. It would take a lot of financial work, since the team only has $10 million in cap space. They also want to lock up RB Ray Rice to a long term deal. But if Flacco doesn’t make substantial improvements this offseason, the Ravens will once again be only good enough to get into the playoffs, but not good enough to reach the proverbial Promised Land.

It’s unlikely that Manning lands here. If the Ravens are going to win it all, they probably plan on doing it with the guys they already have, plus a new WR or two. However, Baltimore may emerge as a dark horse in the upcoming bidding war for this legendary signal caller, so watch out.

Chances of signing: 4/10 

Washington Redskins: The chances that Redskins owner Dan Snyder will make a play for Manning are about 99.99%. The team hasn’t had a true QB in God knows how long, and if there’s one guy who likes to throw huge bags of cash at free agent players, it’s Snyder. Washington has $48 million in cap space, so they have the firepower to outbid a lot of teams for Manning’s services.

However, it will be a hard sell for this team to convince Manning that they are his best potential suitor. They’ve botched a plethora of player signings and coaching hirings over the years, and they seem to be the perennial cellar dwellers of the NFC East. They will have to provide him with some sort of extra incentive that will motivate him to wear burgundy and gold in 2012. One such piece of incentive would be if they signed his favorite WR from Indianapolis, Reggie Wayne. Considering that the team disperses money liberally, that shouldn’t be a problem. They could also hammer home the point that he would get to play against his younger brother twice every year.

If the Redskins want Manning, they have all the tools they need to acquire him…except his personal interest in actually playing for them.

Chances of signing: 5/10 

New Orleans Saints: The Saints just put the franchise tag on Drew Brees, and this team is heading into a dark period thanks to the still-developing “bountygate” story. They have no interest in Manning, and Manning has no interest in them, regardless of the fact that his father Archie used to play for them.

Chances of signing: 1/10 

Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks are an average team that is a only a couple of key pieces away from competing in the relatively weak NFC West. Their current QB situation is one of their biggest soft spots. Even the slightest upgrade over Tarvaris Jackson would make them a substantially improved squad. Signing or drafting a QB will be a priority for them this offseason, so expect them to make an offer to Manning. They have about $30 million in cap space, and they just signed their workhorse RB, Marshawn Lynch, to a four year deal. Having a stable RB situation is probably a strong selling point for Manning, who has lacked a reliable ground attack throughout the second half of his NFL career.

Seattle would make a good fit for Manning, but there are better suitors out there. I think that the Seahawks’ rivals, the Cardinals and the 49ers, are more attractive options for a QB looking for one more taste of Super Bowl glory. In the end, I believe that Matt Flynn is the more realistic option here.

But if they can offer Manning a massive deal, it may give him that extra push to sign with them.

Chances of signing: 6/10 

Pittsburgh Steelers: They already have Ben Roethlisberger, and they are in what many analysts call “cap hell”. They are currently over the cap by $12 million dollars, so the priority right now is to cut players, not sign them. So obviously, there’s no way Peyton ends up in Pittsburgh.

Chances of signing: 1/10 

 Houston Texans: Texans’ GM Rick Smith has probably entertained the notion of signing Peyton Manning. After all, his team was really just a QB away from a Super Bowl berth last season. When healthy, Matt Schaub is a top 10 QB, and rookie TJ Yates showed some poise in being able to lead his banged up squad into the playoffs. But signing Manning would be the ultimate coup d’état for this franchise. It would be the equivalent of Brett Favre signing with the Vikings back in 2009. It would be a slap in the face to the Colts, and it would make the defensively dominating Texans immediate Super Bowl favorites going into the 2012 season.

But the Texans have more pressing needs. If Schaub can recover fully from his foot injury, the QB situation will be fine. They just locked up RB Arian Foster to a long term deal, so DE Mario Williams should be next in line for a big payday. After those two guys are locked up, cap room will be limited.

Still, worries about Schaub’s history of season-ending injuries could motivate the Texans to make a change at QB, whether that means making Yates the starter, or clearing cap space for a guy like Manning to play in Houston.

Chances of signing: 3/10 

Tennesse Titans: The Titans are the definition of a “meh” team. They have ok QBs in Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Locker, an ok defense, ok WRs, and an ok (though now and again elite) RB. They have a good amount of cap space ($35 million) but most of that will be spent on other areas of the team. Jake Locker is the QB of the future in Nashville, and I don’t expect them to bench him for a couple of seasons in favor of Peyton Manning.

Would Manning make the Titans a better team? Yes. But does the move make sense for either side? No.

Chances of signing: 2/10 

Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings love aging veteran QBs. Randall Cunningham, Gus Freotte, Brett Favre, and Donovan McNabb all spent a good part of their twilight years wearing purple and gold. If the Vikings believed that they could become instant contenders again with Peyton Manning under center, they would make a move to get him, regardless of the fact that Christian Ponder is supposed to be their guy going into 2012 and beyond.

But the truth of the matter is that the NFC North is now one of the toughest divisions in the NFL. The Packers, Lions, and Bears are stacked, and they are going to be vying for playoffs positions for at least the next 5 seasons. A single person isn’t going to make the Vikings contenders again. Not even Peyton Manning. This team would be wise to steer clear of Manning, and simply focus on the long term potential of their squad.

But these guys really do love veteran QBs, so Peyton isn’t out of the realm of possibility here.

Chances of signing: 3/10