In the wake of Egypt's revolution against Hosni Mubarak's totalitarian regime, many foreign observers believed that the African nation, along with several other Muslim nations, had a chance to change the course of history. After suffering for years, the buds of freedom finally seemed to be sprouting from underneath the despotic soil that had plagued the Middle East for countless generations. As most people know by now, the "Arab Spring" began in Tunisia when their leader, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, was forced to flee the country in the wake of a popular uprising. Soon after Ben Ali's ouster, the anger and pent up resentment that had been secretly boiling inside the Middle Eastern people exploded in streets and city squares around the region. Mubarak fell soon after Ben Ali, and as of today uprisings (violent ones, unlike the ones in Egypt and Tunisia) are underway in Libya and Yemen. All of these uprisings, particularly the Egyptian one, pitted a pro-democracy citizenry against a power-loving dictator and his inner circle. So it should go without saying that when Egypt holds its free and fair presidential election this fall, the electorate will select a candidate who is fresh, wise, and who was supportive of the revolution, right?
Well, not exactly.
Unfortunately, the Egyptian people seem poised to destroy all of the progress they have made in relation to democratic reform. That is because a man known as Amr Moussa is the heavily favored front runner to become Egypt's new leader. According to recent election polling, Moussa has commanding lead over all of the other candidates. One poll showed that Moussa had 25% of the vote and that his closest competitor, Mohamed ElBaradei, only had 5% of the vote. However, 57% of voters are still undecided, so there is still hope.
So why should the Egyptian people consider Amr Moussa as a threat? Well, one obvious reason is that he was a primary member of Hosni Mubarak's regime. According to a recent Newsweek profile on Moussa, he was Mubarak's Foreign Minister between the years of 1991-2001. For the past ten years, he was the Secretary General of the Arab League, an organization made up of 22 predominately Muslim nations, many of which are attempting to stifle their own unrest. Moussa is the epitome of the old guard leadership. Although he claims that he had a tense and unfriendly relationship with Mubarak, he does not elaborate on that position. When he is questioned by reporters about his relationship with Mubarak, he never gives a straight answer. He also refuses to call Mubarak a criminal.
Another major problem with Moussa is that he wasn't exactly sympathetic towards the revolutionary movement. The previously mentioned Newsweek profile paints a picture of a Moussa who was more concerned with saving Mubarak, rather than siding with the protesters. Moussa was at an economic summit in Switzerland when the revolution began. Moussa is quoted as saying that “I told him, '[President Mubarak], this is a revolution ...you should listen to what they say, and no bloodshed.". Yes, by simply reading that quote one could infer that Moussa was in actuality siding with the protesters. But when taken in the context of other statements he reportedly made, it becomes clear that Moussa was only trying to save an old friend's job and prestige. Supposedly, Moussa addressed a crowd of protesters during the second week of the revolution. Although he claimed to understand their frustrations, he told them that they should not try to throw Mubarak out of power. Moussa disputes this claim, but if it is a true story, it certainly builds upon the case against him.
So how is a seemingly pro-Mubarak member of the last government getting such high marks in the polls? Well, like most career politicians, Moussa knows how to play off of people's emotions, and he does so very effectively. There is one particular hot-button, empassioned issue that he is very outspoken about: Israel. Throughout his political career, Moussa has been highly critical of the Israeli government, particularly in relation to the establishment of a Palestinian state. Moussa has indicated that he wants to keep Egypt's peace agreement with Israel in tact, but at the same time he wants to re-set relations with the rival nation. Already, the military leadership that is currently running Egypt has discussed re-opening their country's border with the Gaza Strip. They have also talked about easing relations with Iran, a move that could potentially landlock Israel with hostile nations. None of these moves would improve Egypt's standing in the world, and if they went ahead and implemented these proposals they could potentially lose billions of dollars in aid from the United States and other Western nations.
Moussa, however, has a keen understanding of relentless Muslim hatred towards Israel, and he will continue to preach to the rabid choir if it helps him win the Presidency. A Western diplomat recently said that “The source of his popularity is almost entirely derived from his image as an Arab nationalist who’s very critical of Israel.”. This statement is probably true, and that is sad. Unfortunately, the Egyptian people may let pure hatred destroy the democratic movement that they have fought so hard for. Instead of electing a true reformer like ElBaradei, they seem content with electing a hack from Mubarak's brain trust.
This "meet the new boss, same as the old boss" rise to power is not without precedent in global politics. Just nine short years after the Soviet Union fell, Vladimir Putin was elected President of Russia. Putin, who was relatively new in the field of politics, was and still is an intimidating, Stalin-esque figure. In Soviet Russia, Putin was a ruthless KGB agent. One of his primary assignments in the KGB was to sniff and and stifle political dissent. After somehow ascending to the office of the Presidency, he didn't simply become a democracy-loving representative of the Russian people. Putin's totalitarian tendencies still remained in tact during his tenure as President, which lasted from 2000-2008. Some examples of his anti-democratic activities include:
- The abnormally high amount of journalist killings during his tenure: Over 100 journalist deaths over 8 years. Many of these journalists were critical of Putin and his policies
- The death of Alexander Litvinenko, an ex-KGB agent and vocal critic of the Russian government. He was mysteriously killed by radiation poisoning. Most people believe that he was assassinated by the Russian government.
- Suppression of protests
- His desire to become President once again (he is currently the Russian Prime Minister)
- The re-Stalinization of Russia: Putin does not vocally criticize Stalin, and has allowed for his infamous legacy to be celebrated in Russia. Examples include re-introducing pro-Stalin artwork at Russian train stations, and altering some police uniforms to resemble those worn by the NKVD (Stalin's secret police)
Despite all of this, Putin still remains a very popular figure in Russia. At one point during his Presidency, his approval rating was at 81%, the highest of any world leader. This baffling popularity is mainly the result of the economic improvements Russia saw in Putin's tenure, but that doesn't excuse his totalitarian methods of leadership.
Russia is a sad example of a newly-freed citizenry that couldn't handle the new freedoms and responsibilities that they had been given. Rather than confront the hard challenges that needed to be resolved, they became frightened and let a quasi-dictator "make everything alright". Today, Russia may be an economically stable nation, but it can hardly be considered a free nation. Egypt risks meeting the same fate. They are letting a Mubarak crony, a man who has never expressed pro-democracy viewpoints, play off of their fears and emotions. It's amazing to see Mohamed ElBaradei struggle to get significant support. Even before the revolution began, ElBaradei was one of the most vocal supporters of a free Egypt. He was also one of the most prominent Egyptian leader to march with the protesters in Tahrir Square. During one appearance at the demonstrations, he told the swarms of angry protesters that had regained their rights, and that there could be no turning back.
Now, Egypt faces a crucial choice. They can turn around, take the familiar path home, and re-embrace an angrier and more radical Mubarak regime, led by Amr Moussa . They can also soldier forward down an unfamiliar road, confront the challenges that lay ahead, and ultimately create a free Egypt led by leaders who use logic and negotiation rather than fear and violence to solve the difficult problems that plague the Middle East. Hopefully, Egyptians choose the latter option.
To quote the famous poet Robert Frost. "Two roads diverged in a wood, and I- I took the the one less traveled by. And that has made all of the difference."
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